Unidentified object could hit Earth in 2030

By ROBERT JABLON, Associated Press

LOS ANGELES (November 3, 2000 5:33 p.m. EST http://www.nandotimes.com) - Scientists have spotted a small asteroid or a piece of space debris that they say has a 1-in-500 chance of colliding with the Earth in 30 years - far greater odds than any similar object ever discovered.

If it is an asteroid and it hits the planet, "it would be equivalent to a fairly sizable nuclear blast," said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. For now, though, that is "fairly low in terms of concern," he said.

The object, designated 2000 SG344, is believed to be 98 to 230 feet long. It was discovered Sept. 29 through a telescope in Hawaii.

The chance of a collision is about a thousand times greater than for any other asteroid-like object yet discovered, said Paul Chodas, principal engineer of the NASA office.

Current projections are that it will make its closest approach to Earth on Sept. 21, 2030, but miss the planet by 15 times the distance between the Earth and moon. However, scientists are uncertain about the exact orbit and cannot rule out the possibility of a collision.

More observations are needed to pin down the object's size; right now, it is just a bright spot in space. But if it turns out to be an asteroid, more than 23,000 tons of rocks could come hurtling through the atmosphere.

The orbit - circular, close to the sun and in about the same plane as Earth's - is unusual for an asteroid, leading to suspicions that it might be a used rocket stage, possibly one jettisoned from an Apollo launch in the 1970s, scientists said.

In that case, the object would have much less mass and would not pose any danger to Earth because it would burn up in the atmosphere.

The object is about 8.4 million miles from Earth.

The object's discovery is the product of an asteroid-hunting program that found more than 8,600 more benign objects in September alone.