What’s new in personal computers?

RIVER BENDER - September, 2002

Prices of personal computers are dropping dramatically. Dell fired the first shot almost a year ago and has been offering everything from no-cost shipping to free hardware extras. My grandkids even tell me "You need a Dell dude." It’s a buyer’s market but for anyone watching ads and seeing hundred-dollar price drops every few weeks it’s hard to decide exactly when to place your order.

One thing I’ve noticed is that some vendors drop their prices and then substitute a less expensive video card, sound card, monitor or other components. You need to look up the value of the components on the web to see what you’re getting. Some vendors go the opposite way and maintain their price somewhat but substitute better components, supposedly to retain their high-end market share. Dell and Gateway do this.

Most PC ads from places like Staples, Best Buy or Circuit City are aimed at the low-end PC market. These PCs are in the $500-$800 price range and are priced low because they don’t have the latest technology. They aren’t the fastest nor do they have the best monitors or components but that’s OK because many people don’t need a super PC. Besides, most new PCs are more than adequate for browsing the web and handling e-mail.

My PC is an old Gateway Pentium Pro 200 mHz with 65mb RAM, bought in 1996 for over $3000. At that time it was the fastest PC at NBCUG and seemed like a speeding bullet compared to my old 386-25mHz machine that it replaced. My Gateway is probably not worth more than $50 now but it still does everything I need it to do. Nevertheless it’s getting old and could fail any day so why don’t I run down to Staples and get something like a HP Pavilion for $729 that’s 1.4gHz with 128mb RAM? It would run circles around my machine, but what about the future? When I buy a new PC I want the latest technology since I keep it for years and don’t want to start with a PC that is obsolete the day I buy it. Why? Because new technology is coming down the pike that I might wish to upgrade to later and my chances of doing that are better with a PC having the latest technology.

What’s coming down the pike? The first thing to happen is that Windows XP will get a face lift with Service Pack 1 that could be released by the time this article appears. The critics are saying that it will be more than a collection of security and bug fixes and instead will be a full-on interim Windows release with tons of new stuff. Following shortly afterwards Windows XP Media Center Edition (code-named Freestyle), Windows XP Tablet PC Edition, and Windows Media 9 Series (code-named Corona) will be available.

Future versions of Windows beyond XP promise to be even more exciting. The next major Windows release, code-named Longhorn, is due in 2004 and will include Microsoft's Palladium architectural changes. Ask yourself what really needs fixing the most on today’s PCs. Is it more speed or bigger hard drives? No, it’s computer security and it’s enough of a worry that Microsoft views it as a threat to its continued success and plans to completely change the architecture to address concerns of security, privacy and intellectual property. Palladium architecture will protect the user from privacy invasions, outside hacking, spam and other electronic attacks. It will use special security chips and microprocessors made by Intel and AMD that won't interfere with the normal operation of your PC. The new system won’t run unauthorized programs thus preventing viruses from trashing your PC. Your data will be encrypted and won’t be able to be accessed or altered without your knowledge. Spam will be canned before it hits your mailbox. Sounds almost too good to be true.

Meanwhile Intel is forging ahead in the PC hardware arena with their Pentium 4 processors with speeds now up to 2.53 gHz that takes desktop computing to a new level by adding a 533 MHz front-side system bus along with offering 512K performance-enhancing, level-two cache advanced (SSE2) multimedia instructions. By the end of the year Pentium 4 processors are expected to be running at 3.0 gHz. But the real advancement won’t come until Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography becomes available by 2007 that can potentially produce processors with speeds in excess of 10 gHz and memory chips with storage capacities that greatly exceed those of today. It's hard to image what a PC will be like in five years from now. Just look back and see what has happened over the past five years and ask yourself if you would have guessed where we are today.